Performance Predictions, Strava’s New Feature to Predict Finish Times Drag
April 2025, Strava has introduced Performance Predictions, a feature that provides personalized finish time estimates for popular running race distances such as 5K, 10K, half marathon (21.09 km), and marathon (42.19 km).
Designed to help athletes, particularly runners, train more strategically and confidently, Performance Predictions analyzes recent running activity history to estimate finish times and target paces. This feature assists users in planning workouts, building confidence, and tracking measurable improvements before and after race day.
The feature is powered by a machine learning model that analyzes over 100 data points about users and leverages Strava’s insights into the performance of similar runners.
Performance Predictions provides finish time estimates for runners based on their historical Strava activity data. Supported race distances include 5K, 10K, half marathon, and full marathon, without accounting for terrain or elevation variability, assuming the athlete runs on a flat course.
To access all predictions, users must upload at least 20 outdoor running activities with GPS within a 24-week period. After uploading 5 runs, 5K predictions unlock. After 10 runs, 10K predictions become available, and after 20 runs, half and full marathon predictions are accessible.
This threshold ensures the machine learning model has sufficient data to generate high-quality, accurate predictions. The model produces a new set of predictions for users after each run upload and after three days without any run uploads.
Runners who haven’t uploaded enough activities will see predictions based on the last time they met the upload threshold. Predictions update once users resume uploading and reach the activity threshold.
The result is a smarter, more responsive training experience. Runners can assess whether their workouts support their target pace, make necessary adjustments, and track their evolving potential.
Strava is an app and social media platform designed for runners, cyclists, and other athletes to track, analyze, and share their sports activities. Launched in 2009, Strava allows users to record workout data such as distance, time, speed, and routes using GPS from smartphones or wearable devices like smartwatches.
In 2024, nearly 1 billion running activities were recorded on Strava—solidifying its role as the go-to platform for runners worldwide aiming to train smarter and achieve more.
Sources: press.strava.com, support.strava.com
-
Hasto Prianggoro